But sadly for us it won’t be in Luton;

‘”I would try somewhere else next time,” she says. “I have to say I was shocked by what I found in Luton,” she adds, describing the constituency as “riven with factions”.’

I am tempted to say – no, that’s not being riven by factions – it’s called an election campaign…..

Just before polling day for I asked on this blog the question “Is someone using Twitter for dirty tricks in Luton South?“.

This referred to the use of a Twitter account named ‘lutonliberal‘, by someone we in the local party had never heard of, for what appeared to be a, rather amateurish, attempt to boost the campaign of independent candidate Esther Rantzen.

What I didn’t mention back then was that I was following another account, ‘LutonSouth2010‘, which wanted to give the appearance of coming from a, presumably independent, “journalist/blogger” but whose tweets were again an attempt to boost Esther.

Looking back on it now I am convinced that someone was trying to astroturf for Esther’s campaign. A conclusion that is supported by the fact that, in the almost nine months since the election, neither  ‘lutonliberal’ or ‘LutonSouth2010′ have tweeted anything.

What is the significance of this?

Well, not a lot if I am honest. Particularly given the very modest vote that Esther received!

Yet, it is a useful reminder that those involved in future high profile elections should keep a wary eye on what is said on Twitter and importantly on who is saying it.

Earlier this month the Telegraph reported that Moran was likely to face criminal charges over false expense claims; “MPs’ expenses: Margaret Moran may be fifth MP to face court“. The list of allegations makes for depressing reading.

Details on the BBC website; ‘Luton man who threw egg at Baroness Warsi jailed‘, & on the Guardian website; ‘Man gets six weeks in jail for throwing eggs at Tory peer Lady Warsi‘

Call me an old liberal softy if you like, but I do think jail time for throwing an egg at a politician is a bit harsh.

Paul Walter has pulled together the list of the new target seats for the Liberal Democrats ranked by the percentage point difference between the party’s percentage of the vote, and that of the winner.

http://liberalburblings.co.uk/2010/05/the-new-liberal-democrats-target-seat-list/

According to this list the constituencies in Bedfordshire come in the following order:

Luton South is 56

Bedford is 135

Bedfordshire Mid 300

Bedfordshire South West 435

Bedfordshire North East 463

Luton North 512

“Striking differences can be seen in the same towns, between incumbents and non-incumbents. For example, in Milton Keynes North, where the incumbent was a Conservative, the swing to the Tories was 9.2%; in Milton Keynes South, where the incumbent was Labour, the swing was 6.2%. In Swindon North, where a new Labour candidate stood, the swing was 10%. In Swindon South, where the MP ran again, the swing was 5.5%. Most notably of all, perhaps, in Luton South, the swing to the Conservatives was 4.6%, while Luton North, where the sitting MP had distinguished himself during the expenses scandal, showed a rare swing to Labour of 0.5%.”

I am of course desperately disappointed. The amount of work and commitment given by the small team of Luton Liberal Democrats to this election was extraordinary, as was the level of support given by those from outside. They really did deserve a better result.

I also have to pay full tribute to Qurban Hussain the Liberal Democrat candidate. He is a man of great integrity and has shown a principled commitment to serving the community in Luton in different ways over the years. I had so hoped that he would have had a chance to bring that commitment to the role of Luton South’s Member of Parliament. He handled his disappointment at the result with great dignity.

Instead Luton South has Gavin Shuker as its MP. Who, as far as I could tell, fought the election on the platform of not being Margaret Moran, of having been born in Luton, living in Luton, and having relatives who worked at Vauxhall. A platform which, I reckon, I and a few thousand other people in this town could also have stood on. What other achievements he has to his name, what he believes in, what he will try to do as an MP, I have no idea. We will have to wait and see what kind of representation he provides for the town.

I did genuinely think that the Liberal Democrats had a chance of winning in this election. There were solid arguments that, if the people of this town wanted change, the Liberal Democrats were in a good position to deliver it.  My belief that we had a chance of winning was naturally strengthened by the national reaction to Nick Clegg after the leader’s debates. So I was optimistic.

I also thought that, while support for the Conservatives in Luton is in long term decline, something I still believe, if the seat wasn’t to go to the Liberal Democrats it would be won by the Tories. What I didn’t expect was that after the scandal surrounding Margaret Moran and the way that the Labour Party in Luton supported her up until the very last moment, the level of anger that produced, and the expected rejection of Labour and Gordon Brown across the country that the Labour vote would hold up so well.

I am shocked and puzzled by the strength of the Labour vote in Luton South and, to a lesser extent, in Luton North.

Did people fear change and what it might mean? Was it fear of a Conservative government and how it would affect them? I really don’t understand why after being treated so shabbily by them, after being taken so for granted and treated like fools, so many people in Luton still chose to stick with Labour. I really would like to understand.

So if there is anyone from Luton who voted Labour reading this blog please do use the comments to this post to explain why.

• Luton Today: ‘VIDEO: That’s Life! Rantzen loses deposit as Shuker triumphs‘
• BBC News: ‘Labour hold Luton South against Esther challenge‘
• Sky News: ‘TV Star Rantzen Swept Aside In Luton South‘
• Guardian: ‘UK election results: Esther Rantzen’s campaign ends in lost deposit‘
• London Evening Standard: ‘Esther Rantzen loses deposit as she is trounced in bid to become MP‘
• Telegraph: ‘General Election 2010: Esther Rantzen fails as Labour hold Luton South‘
• Daily Mail: ‘That’s Life: ‘Anti-sleaze’ candidate Esther Rantzen fails in her bid to win Labour seat‘

I said all along that she had no chance of winning. Yet, I am surprised at how badly she did. I was expecting her to get a slightly higher vote than the one she ended up with.

The way media reported on her involvement in this election, the amount of attention they lavished on her and the ridiculous claims made about her chances, was extraordinary. It should leave those journalists involved feeling foolish and chastened. Although I doubt that it actually will.

Between them the five independents standing in Luton South got just 6.6% of the vote. The one I feel most sorry for is Joe Hall who fought a clever and interesting campaign and deserved more than the 264 votes that he got.

In fact it was a very bad night for independents across the country, especially with Dr Richard Taylor’s loss of Wyre Forest. Let’s be clear politics is a team game. Political parties are an essential component of any democratic system. What matters in our politicians is not independence from party – but independence of mind.

I am glad the voters of Luton South had the good sense to see through the superficial appeal of a celebrity candidate. Whether they showed good sense in the way they voted for three main parties I will deal with in another post.

My reaction to the result in Luton South is naturally one of deep disapointment, but also a genuine confusion at why the Labour vote would have held up so well. My response to the national picture is a general sense of bewilderment and some real heartache over some specific results. Very pleased about Simon Wright in Norwich South and Sarah Teather in Brent Central though.

Will write more after I have found the energy to put my thoughts into something approaching a coherent order.

“ex lib-dem town councillor now living in Luton firmly behind Qurban Hussain”

So you might think that a Liberal Democrat activist has decided to use Twitter to promote Qurban Hussain’s campaign in Luton South. Yet I think that something distinctly fishy is going on and some questions need to be asked.

Firstly, there is nobody involved in the Luton Liberal Democrats with the name of Terry Spencer. I am the local party secretary and would know if there was. We have no member, current or lapsed, with the name of Terry Spencer. There doesn’t appear to be a Terry Spencer on the electoral register in Luton either.

So is Terry Spencer a real person?

Luton doesn’t have any town councils so I did a quick Google search to see if I could find where our tweeting friend was elected. I did find that there was a Terry Spencer on the council of New Whiteland in Indiana and there is a Tory with that name on Worcestershire County Council. But no trace of a Liberal Democrat councillor with that name.

So, if he does exist, where was Terry Spencer a town councillor?

Then there is the problem with what our friend Terry is actually Tweeting about. If you read the tweets, which you can do here and make up your own mind, the claim to be “firmly behind Qurban Hussain” seems to evaporate.

The pattern of what Terry writes seems to be to make some general tweets and re-tweets in favour of the Liberal Democrats, but then to be critical of Liberal Democrat candidate Qurban Hussain. He is also critical of independent candidate Stephen Rhodes. He is more positive about Joe Hall. But the candidate he has most praise for is Esther Rantzen. Terry seems to want to give the impression that he is a disappointed Lib Dem campaigner that believes Esther’s campaign is the one with the momentum.

Here are some examples;

“Is clegg effect fading hope not – newspapers are just aligning themselves I guess we may lose Luton to Esther but we will gain nationally” May 1st

“Our hope qurban is fading fast in Luton south really pissed off thought you would do Better on TV maybe clegg effect will help” May 2nd

“lib dems are leading in polls in tommorows papers – Esther is leading in Luton though” May 3rd

Now it is possible that there are people in Luton who used to vote Liberal Democrat but aren’t impressed by our candidate and are falling for Esther’s charms. Unlikely, but possible. But our Terry wants to go further than that. He wants give the impression, particularly with his choice of Twitter identity, that he is more than just a voter and is somehow active in our campaign.

He is not.

I don’t want to go all CSI and start doing textual analysis, but from the way Terry writes I doubt he is a a Liberal Democrat at all. For instance, he often refers to us as ‘liberals’ and no Liberal Democrat activist would write ‘lib-dem’. A hyphen, please!

I am happy to be proved wrong if Terry wants to contact me – but the question needs to be asked whether this an attempt to use Twitter to boost Esther’s campaign and undermine the Liberal Democrat one?

If it is, I would be very surprised if Esther Rantzen’s campaign itself was behind it. It would undermine her whole argument about cleaning up politics and besides she’s just not that sort of person. But perhaps for the avoidance of doubt, if she reads this, it would be sensible for her to make it clear that Terry Spencer has nothing to with her?

No 12 on the list is Luton South. (See graphic below.)

Worcester argues that if the Liberal Democrats score 28% in the national opinion polls, which is roughly where the Party is at the moment, the Liberal Democrats will need to generate a ‘campaign’ swing of only 6% to win.

If you remember the swings achieved in some seats at the last election, for example Manchester Withington acheived 17.6%, this is very achievable.

More details at: ‘How to vote tactically: our guide to Britain’s key battleground seats‘

———

Apparently Esther has a personal assistant who is part funded by the children’s charity NSPCC. The complaint concerns the possibility that if the PA has worked on Esther’s election campaign, rules regarding the involvement of charities in political campaigning may have been broken.

More on this:

• ‘NSPCC probed over Rantzen PA‘
• ‘Commission considers complaint about Esther Rantzen’s PA‘

“Now, though, talk to voters going about their shopping in the Mall and market and, while the fury at Moran’s antics is obvious, the way that will be expressed in the ballot box is far less clear.

In 2005 the gap between Labour and the Tories was under 6,000 and between the Conservative candidate and the Liberal Democrat, just over 2,000.

And the Clegg effect appears to be working here, as elsewhere.

Luton South is one of the most reliable “bellwether” constituencies in the land, electing a candidate from the party that wins the election every poll since 1951.

At the start of the campaign that led most in the constituency to believe it would be a straight Lab-Tory fight. Not any more.”